New Policy Study applies results of the late-2023 Heartland/Rasmussen poll which found more than one-in-four mail-in voters admitted to submitting illegal ballots

Even if only a fraction of self-admitted violations of election law occurred, Trump beats Biden in multiple swing states and wins 2020 Electoral College vote

By Heartland Institute Staff

With the 2024 election season in full swing, and a Trump-Biden rematch appearing likely, Americans deserve to know that illegally cast mail-in ballots likely changed the outcome of the 2020 election. However, in 2020, mail-in voting reached an all-time record due to pandemic policies encouraging mail-in voting.

These abrupt and capricious changes to voting procedures in the months before the 2020 election occurred despite the fact that ample evidence showed that mass mail-in voting, unsecure ballot drop boxes, ballot harvesting, and lack of signature verification would result in a flood of fraudulent ballots that would undermine the accuracy of the election results.

A groundbreaking poll conducted by The Heartland Institute and Rasmussen Reports in November/December 2023 attempted to assess the degree of fraudulent voting that may have taken place. The results were stunning. Some of the most important findings from the poll include:

• 21% of mail-in voters admitted that in 2020 they voted in a state where they are “no longer a permanent resident.”
• 21% of mail-in voters admitted that they filled out a ballot for a friend or family member
• 17% of mail-in voters said they signed a ballot for a friend or family member “with or without his or her permission.”
• 19% of mail-in voters said that a friend or family member filled out their ballot, in part or in full, on their behalf.

After examining the raw survey data provided by Rasmussen, we found that 28.2% of all mail-in respondents admitted to committing at least one of the four types of fraud asked in the survey, meaning that more than one-in-four ballots cast by mail in 2020 were likely cast fraudulently, and thus should not have been counted.

This policy study takes the results of the Heartland/Rasmussen survey and applies them directly to the six swing states that Biden won by razor-thin margins in 2020: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin. Because Biden voters cast mail-in ballots at a much higher rate than Trump voters, any level of fraud almost certainly benefited Biden to a significantly greater degree than Trump.

In addition to the 28.2% fraud scenario, the study analyzes the electoral results for every fraud integer from 27% down to 1%. In every instance except the 3%, 2%, and 1% fraud scenarios, our results indicate that Trump would have won the Electoral College in the 2020 U.S. presidential election had fraudulent mail-in ballots not been counted. Hence, even if the level of fraud detected in the Heartland/Rasmussen survey (28.2% of all mail-in ballots) substantially overstated voter fraud by multiple orders of magnitude, Trump would likely still have won the 2020 election.

Ultimately, our study clearly shows that if the 2020 election had been as free, fair, and secure as past elections have been, Donald Trump would almost certainly have been re-elected to a second term. As the country braces for a Trump-Biden rematch, it is imperative that state legislatures do all that they can to ensure the next election is as secure as possible, primarily by severely limiting mail-in voting and instituting other commonsense policies to prevent mail-in voter fraud. If state lawmakers do not pass measures to thwart the possibility of extensive voter fraud occurring again, more Americans will question the legitimacy of  future elections, further eroding the American people’s trust in our nation’s democratic institutions.

From heartland.org