Update on Weatherbell December hurricane season from hell forecast
By Joe Bastardi
I am making no changes to our ideas at this time. This is by far the greatest Euro Hurricane forecast from April on record. I went back through the archives. The forecasted Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) from May through October is 1.7 normal. The previous highest one was 1.3. Amazingly, in 2020, it was only .9. In the last El Nino year reversal, it was .7. In 2017, it was,7. That it is 2-3 times higher than 2 of the analog years that we have for their impact t makes it even more spectacular.
As you know, we are all in for impact. Total numbers and probabilities are not my game. But I can not imagine a more threatening impact forecast than this ( perhaps until the next run that will fill in further southeast.
Its sight has the whole East Coast and most of the Gulf Coast painted red.
The current SST
is 2010
and 2020
The forecasted drop of the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) 3.4 by the Climate System Variation (CFSV2) would be the greatest on record, beating ’97-’98 El Nino and La Nina that followed. The DIFFERENCE in Sea Surface Temperature (SST) between ENSO 3.4 and the MDR is forecasted to be the greatest on record.
(Central tropical Pacific to the Main Development areas of the Atlantic.)
Meanwhile, the West Pacific is forecasted at .6. If we take the normal ACE in the Atlantic (about 120), it means the Euro is forecasting 204 through the end of October. This is at the bottom end of our range; the model has a bias that forecasts less. The west pac normal is 300. The model has 180. Between the two basins, the average is 420. The model has a less-than-normal year globally, as it has a total ACE of 380. The east PAC is 1.1 of normal, meaning globally, an average year is forecasted. This is important because Our long-standing forecast is right, and others are seeing it; hurricanes will be a huge political football this year (as they always are, but even more so). I would again strongly advise the RNC to get proactive on this and explain this the way I have been trying to show here since we put this idea out on CFACT months ago. Get the whole picture outlined. AHEAD OF TIME and let people know why. This is a global issue, right? Well, there is no change in Global hurricane activity. Dr Ryan Maue’s outstanding site shows this in no uncertain terms. https://climatlas.com/tropical/
The fact is that hurricanes are a natural phenomenon that are ways of signalling how nature is redistributing heat. If there were a dangerous build-up of heat in the tropical areas, rather than where it’s coldest and driest, you would see it with all the basins and total activity above normal. So when the Pacific is down, the Atlantic has to take up the slack. It is a sign that the planet is in a La Nina base state in response to the distorted warming brought about by oceanic warming, but more away from the equator than towards it. If you are going to have frequent La Ninas, and this is due to the warmth in the western Pacific as it creates stronger easterlies over the tropical Pacific, the Atlantic will respond naturally. Shove in such things as solar and geothermal effects, and you will have a plausible argument for what you see (unless, of course, the only thing you see is man-made climate change).
The Precip pattern screams lookout:
At 500 MB, the western positive and the belt of positives in the North Atlantic mean the US coast is in the crosshair.
So, I have no changes from our ideas issued in December. The “Downs Adjustment” I have learned to make ( Tom Downs, one of the team here at Weatherbell) suggests every year about 10-15% of storms that are named would not have been seen before). Argues for the higher number. So, if you are into number games, you notice we are higher. But it is the impact that we have pioneered and there is no change from what was issued on December 7.
https://www.weatherbell.com/hurricane-season-from-hell-first-look
Notice in the map:
ALL AREAS ARE ABOVE NORMAL. That includes the hurricane drought areas of Long Island and New England (no landfalling hurricanes in 32 years). The red represents where I think the ACE is (Ace is Accumulated Cyclonic Energy) 2-3 normal. The Euro is saying that the streak may end in New England, and we do not disagree. It has been amazing to me that it has gone this long. If you want to talk climate change, how come that has happened? BTW, I am just cherry-picking this, showing you how the left does the opposite by weaponizing weather. Well, this is a de-weaponization as it points out that the basin that has the most ACE has been running under normal, and globally, there has been no change despite the Hysterical cries of it getting worse.
Well, they may reach shrieks this year, so we better get out in front, which is what I am doing.
I will probably fiddle with impact in May. Since I think this starts early and stays late, a May impact storm is certainly on the table, IMO.
It looks like my son and I are going to be hunting hurricanes this year. My best time in the weather was riding them out with my dad and now with Garrett.
The problem is I don’t look that way anymore, and a strong gust front can blow me over. So it should be interesting.
From cfact.org