Soundbite, snapshot methods push the phony climate war
By Joe Bastardi
Look at this Headline
A Picture is worth a thousand words to counter this
But you will see a one-sided argument in the article that does not address a lot of non-weather factors that I am not going to do here. But right off the bat, you can see things are getting better overall, yet the article is doom and gloom.
A couple of weeks ago, at the hurricane conference, Dr. Phil Klotzbach essentially mimicked what I have been saying for many years, The Saffir Simpson scale is not the way to measure the power and impact of a hurricane. That drew headlines, yet no mention of someone in the private sector that not only has pushed that but as a scale to replace it. Again the media reports what they want when they want and does no research to dig deeper. That hurricanes are used for political purposes in a phony climate war means that a scale that accurately describes the totality of the power of the storm could reveal what many suspect, that though there are a few more storms overall, they are weaker.
Now watch this. Our analog package for the hurricane season has this anomaly at 700 MB
here is what the model has
THE SIGNIFICANCE OF THIS IS HUGE! Even in the southern hemisphere the positives and negatives are in a position similar to the subjective ( based on research and the methodology I have developed over 4 decades) analog package we came up with so explain why we have the high impact season on the US coast. Those are big-hitting years in there ( top chart)
But does anyone say anything or note it? Of course not. But if it happens, I will get trashed for saying it’s not climate change but a predictable result of this year’s global pattern. ( the same pattern that will likely lead to a weak year again in the western Pacific) And by people who don’t make such forecasts and have no idea that this even is out there. So there is a global common thread to all this that will be tested
But therein lies the problem. It is like we are a soundbite, snapshot society when it comes to issues of weather and climate. If someone digs into both sides you get a picture that is different, links that show up that one would think advance the field for the common good. But that is not the case. So a tweet on this for instance. that shows the set up several months in advance for the kind of hurricane season we think is coming ( and we showed things way out in front last year and the year before and indeed every year since I came aboard on Weatherbell), gets this
No one cares until it can be used for an agenda (one of my agendas on Twitter is to try to nail forecasts and draw people to our site)
You see what I am getting at? It is out there, but unless it happens, no one gives a darn, and when and if it does, the cause will be blamed on something that people that do the blaming are not even looking at or studying.
We are running programs about the next 40 years of climate change. We are writing articles about how bad it is, when it’s actually getting better. I can only conclude the goal is not the correct answer, but instead to convince people of a missive designed for another purpose. And it does not have the search for the truth on the matter as its basis
Joe Bastardi is a pioneer in extreme weather and long-range forecasting. He is the author of “The Climate Chronicles: Inconvenient Revelations You Won’t Hear From Al Gore — and Others” which you can purchase at the CFACT bookstore. His new book The Weaponization of Weather in the Phony Climate war can be found here. phonyclimatewar.com